20年前:面向对象编程——更好地处理软件复杂性。

现在:云计算——为了更好地处理硬件复杂性。

未来:说明性的东西，但它还需要20年。

增强现实

真实世界的视图与虚拟元素以某种方式结合在一起。

“虚拟现实”一词出现于1989年，比“增强现实”一词出现早了几年。

一些早期的使能技术是在1980年之前发明的，但这个概念本身可以追溯到90年代初(至少维基百科是这么说的)。

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augmented_reality#History

回答“为什么新思想会消亡”和“如何应对”这两个问题?

I suspect a lot of the lack of progress is due to the massive influx of capital and entrenched wealth in the industry. Sounds counterintuitive, but I think it's become conventional wisdom that any new idea gets one shot; if it doesn't make it at the first try, it can't come back. It gets bought by someone with entrenched interests, or just FAILs, and the energy is gone. A couple examples are tablet computers, and integrated office software. The Newton and several others had real potential, but ended up (through competitive attrition and bad judgment) squandering their birthrights, killing whole categories. (I was especially fond of Ashton Tate's Framework; but I'm still stuck with Word and Excel).

怎么办呢?首先想到的是Wm。莎士比亚的建议:“让我们杀了所有的律师。”但恐怕他们现在装备太精良了。实际上，我认为最好的选择是找到某种开源计划。它们似乎比其他选择更好地保持可访问性和增量改进。但是这个行业已经变得足够大了，所以某种有机的合作机制是必要的。

I also think that there's a dynamic that says that the entrenched interests (especially platforms) require a substantial amount of change - churn - to justify continuing revenue streams; and this absorbs a lot of creative energy that could have been spent in better ways. Look how much time we spend treading water with the newest iteration from Microsoft or Sun or Linux or Firefox, making changes to systems that for the most part work fine already. It's not because they are evil, it's just built into the industry. There's no such thing as Stable Equilibrium; all the feedback mechanisms are positive, favoring change over stability. (Did you ever see a feature withdrawn, or a change retracted?)

关于SO的另一个讨论线索是臭鼬工厂综合症(参考:Geoffrey Moore):在大型组织中，真正的创新几乎总是(90%以上)出现在自发出现的未经授权的项目中，这些项目完全由个人或小团队的主动性推动(通常会受到正式的管理等级的反对)。所以:质疑权威，反抗体制。

在操作系统核心开发中使用函数式编程/语言。

1980年1月2日我开始编程。我试着思考在我的职业生涯中有哪些重大的新发明。我很难想出一个。大多数我认为重要的东西实际上是在1980年之前发明的，但直到1980年之后才被广泛采用或改进。

Graphical User Interface. Fast processing. Large memory (I paid $200.00 for 16k in 1980). Small sizes - cell phones, pocket pc's, iPhones, Netbooks. Large storage capacities. (I've gone from carrying a large 90k floppy to an 8 gig usb thumb drive. Multiple processors. (Almost all my computers have more than one now, software struggles to keep them busy). Standard interfaces (like USB) to easily attach hardware peripherals. Multiple Touch displays. Network connectivity - leading to the mid 90's internet explosion. IDE's with Intellisense and incremental compiling.

虽然硬件有了巨大的进步，但软件行业一直在努力跟上。我们比1980年领先了几光年，但大多数改进都是改进，而不是发明。自1980年以来，我们一直忙于应用技术进步，而不是发明创造。就其本身而言，这些渐进式的发明大多不重要或不强大，但当你回顾过去29年，它们相当强大。

我们可能需要接受渐进式的改进并引导它们。我相信真正原创的想法可能会来自很少接触计算机的人，而且他们越来越难找到。

有效的并行化和量子计算——我认为这是两个已经取得进展的领域，而且还将取得更大的进展，从而使我们对计算能力的使用发生重大变化。

有效的并行化意味着在不需要特殊编程技术的情况下并行和分布处理，但将其内置到编译器/框架中。