足球引爆。我建立了一个GA系统来预测每周澳式足球比赛的结果。

A few years ago I got bored of the standard work football pool, everybody was just going online and taking the picks from some pundit in the press. So, I figured it couldn't be too hard to beat a bunch of broadcast journalism majors, right? My first thought was to take the results from Massey Ratings and then reveal at the end of the season my strategy after winning fame and glory. However, for reasons I've never discovered Massey does not track AFL. The cynic in me believes it is because the outcome of each AFL game has basically become random chance, but my complaints of recent rule changes belong in a different forum.

该系统基本上考虑了进攻强度、防守强度、主场优势、每周的改进(或缺乏)以及这些方面的变化速度。这为每支球队在整个赛季中建立了一组多项式方程。可以计算给定日期的每场比赛的获胜者和分数。我们的目标是找到最接近过去所有游戏结果的系数集，并使用该集合来预测接下来几周的游戏。

在实践中，该系统将找到能够准确预测过去90%以上游戏结果的解决方案。然后，它会成功地为即将到来的一周(即不在训练集中的那一周)挑选大约60-80%的比赛。

结果是:略高于中游水平。没有巨额奖金也没有能打败维加斯的系统。不过很有趣。

我从零开始构建一切，没有使用任何框架。

除了一些常见的问题，如《旅行推销员》和Roger Alsing的《蒙娜丽莎》程序的变体，我还编写了一个进化数独求解器(这需要我自己更多的原创想法，而不仅仅是重新实现别人的想法)。解决数独游戏有更可靠的算法，但进化方法效果相当好。

在过去的几天里，在Reddit上看到这篇文章后，我一直在玩一个进化程序来寻找扑克的“冷牌”。目前还不太令人满意，但我想我可以改进。

我有自己的进化算法框架。

几周前，我提出了一个关于SO的解决方案，使用遗传算法来解决图布局的问题。这是一个约束优化问题的例子。

同样在机器学习领域，我用c/c++从头开始实现了一个基于ga的分类规则框架。 我还在一个示例项目中使用了GA来训练人工神经网络(ANN)，而不是使用著名的反向传播算法。

此外，作为我研究生研究的一部分，我已经使用GA来训练隐马尔可夫模型，作为基于em的Baum-Welch算法的额外方法(还是在c/c++中)。

In 2007-9 I developed some software for reading datamatrix patterns. Often these patterns were difficult to read, being indented into scratched surfaces with all kinds of reflectance properties, fuzzy chemically etched markings and so on. I used a GA to fine tune various parameters of the vision algorithms to give the best results on a database of 300 images having known properties. Parameters were things like downsampling resolution, RANSAC parameters, amount of erosion and dilation, low pass filtering radius, and a few others. Running the optimisation over several days this produced results which were about 20% better than naive values on a test set of images unseen during the optimisation phase.

这个系统完全是从零开始编写的，我没有使用任何其他库。我并不反对使用这些东西，只要它们能提供可靠的结果，但是您必须注意许可兼容性和代码可移植性问题。

我为我的公司在1992年为货运业开发的3D激光表面轮廓系统开发了一个家庭酿造GA。 该系统依赖于三维三角测量，并使用了定制的激光线扫描仪，512x512相机(具有定制的捕获hw)。相机和激光之间的距离永远不会是精确的，相机的焦点也不会在你期望的256,256的位置找到!

尝试使用标准几何和模拟退火式方程求解来计算校准参数是一场噩梦。

遗传算法在一个晚上就完成了，我创建了一个校准立方体来测试它。我知道立方体的精度很高，因此我的想法是，我的遗传算法可以为每个扫描单元进化一组自定义三角测量参数，以克服生产变化。

这招很管用。退一步说，我简直目瞪口呆!在大约10代的时间里，我的“虚拟”立方体(由原始扫描生成并根据校准参数重新创建)实际上看起来像一个立方体!经过大约50代之后，我得到了我需要的校准。

没有家庭作业。

1995年，我作为专业程序员的第一份工作是为标准普尔500指数期货编写一个基于遗传算法的自动交易系统。该应用程序是用Visual Basic 3 [!我不知道我当时是怎么做的，因为VB3甚至没有课程。

The application started with a population of randomly-generated fixed-length strings (the "gene" part), each of which corresponded to a specific shape in the minute-by-minute price data of the S&P500 futures, as well as a specific order (buy or sell) and stop-loss and stop-profit amounts. Each string (or "gene") had its profit performance evaluated by a run through 3 years of historical data; whenever the specified "shape" matched the historical data, I assumed the corresponding buy or sell order and evaluated the trade's result. I added the caveat that each gene started with a fixed amount of money and could thus potentially go broke and be removed from the gene pool entirely.

在对种群的每一次评估之后，幸存者被随机杂交(通过混合来自两个亲本的片段)，一个基因被选择为亲本的可能性与它产生的利润成正比。我还添加了点突变的可能性，让事情变得有趣一点。经过几百代这样的基因，我最终得到了一个基因群，它可以把5000美元变成平均约10000美元，而且没有死亡/破碎的可能性(当然是在历史数据上)。

Unfortunately, I never got the chance to use this system live, since my boss lost close to $100,000 in less than 3 months trading the traditional way, and he lost his willingness to continue with the project. In retrospect, I think the system would have made huge profits - not because I was necessarily doing anything right, but because the population of genes that I produced happened to be biased towards buy orders (as opposed to sell orders) by about a 5:1 ratio. And as we know with our 20/20 hindsight, the market went up a bit after 1995.