这个问题来自于对过去50年左右计算领域各种进展的评论。

其他一些与会者请我把这个问题作为一个问题向整个论坛提出。

这里的基本思想不是抨击事物的现状,而是试图理解提出基本新思想和原则的过程。

我认为我们在大多数计算领域都需要真正的新想法,我想知道最近已经完成的任何重要而有力的想法。如果我们真的找不到他们,那么我们应该问“为什么?”和“我们应该做什么?”


当前回答

上世纪八十年代初,施乐帕洛阿尔托研究中心对计算机蠕虫进行了研究。

摘自John Shoch和Jon Hupp的“蠕虫”程序——分布式计算的早期经验”(ACM通讯,1982年3月,第25卷第3期,172-180页,1982年3月):

In The Shockwave Rider, J. Brunner developed the notion of an omnipotent "tapeworm" program running loose through a network of computers - an idea which may seem rather disturbing, but which is also quite beyond our current capabilities. The basic model, however, remains a very provocative one: a program or a computation that can move from machine to machine, harnessing resources as needed, and replicating itself when necessary. In a similar vein, we once described a computational model based upon the classic science-fiction film, The Blob: a program that started out running in one machine, but as its appetite for computing cycles grew, it could reach out, find unused machines, and grow to encompass those resources. In the middle of the night, such a program could mobilize hundreds of machines in one building; in the morning, as users reclaimed their machines, the "blob" would have to retreat in an orderly manner, gathering up the intermediate results of its computation. Holed up in one or two machines during the day, the program could emerge again later as resources became available, again expanding the computation. (This affinity for nighttime exploration led one researcher to describe these as "vampire programs.")

引用艾伦·凯的话:“预测未来最好的方法就是创造未来。”

其他回答

收缩包装软件

在1980年以前,软件大多是专门编写的。如果你经营一家企业,想要计算机化,你通常会有一台计算机、编译器和数据库,然后自己写东西。业务软件通常是为适应业务实践而编写的。这并不是说没有固定的软件(我在1980年之前使用SPSS),但这不是常态,我看到的往往是基础设施和研究软件。

现在,你可以去电脑商店,在货架上找到经营小生意所需的一切。它的设计并不是为了无缝地适应您曾经拥有的任何实践,但是一旦您学会或多或少地按照它的工作流程工作,它就会很好地工作。像SAP和仁科(PeopleSoft)这样的大企业比过去更接近于收缩包装。

这并不是一个彻底的突破,但在1980年之后,有一个非常明确的转变,从昂贵的定制软件到低成本的现成软件,灵活性从软件转移到业务流程。

它还影响了软件的经济性。定制软件解决方案可以盈利,但无法规模化。你只能向一个客户收取这么多钱,你不能把同样的东西卖给多个客户。使用收缩包装软件,你可以卖出很多很多相同的东西,在一个非常大的销售基础上摊销开发成本。(你必须提供支持,但这是有限度的。就当这是销售软件的边际成本吧。)

Theoretically, where there are big winners from a change, there are going to be losers. So far, the business of software has kept expanding, so that as areas become commoditized other areas open up. This is likely to come to an end sometime, and moderately talented developers will find themselves in a real crunch, unable to work for the big boys and crowded out of the market. (This presumably happens for other fields; I suspect the demand for accountants is much smaller than it would be without QuickBooks and the like.)

如果我们作为一个团体认真地回答这个问题。 不幸的是,我相信我们需要的不仅仅是一串随机的善意的帖子! 我知道,这听起来很无聊,但经常把事情做完才是!

We Write a list of powerful ideas in the area of computing Maybe we should define a few categories to separate each one because videoconference somehow does not fit well with object oriented programming. Seeing ideas by categories makes it easier to generate them without redundancy. It's too easy to sidetrack in teleportation if quantum computing is not kept away from flying cars. Try to attribute each of them a date This will settle the before/after 1980 and restrict debate about each idea to its own. It will be fun to dig for earliest reference, first known implementation, etc. Plus this will allow people like me who were 2 years old in 1980 to have a better idea of what was common programming knowledge in 1980 (nothing beats being there at the time) Try to attribute each of them the current state of their implementation Ok, some idea were sci-fi in 1850, with early development in the 1970 and serious improvement breakthrough in the 1990. Some ideas are just starting to get around. Some are almost forgotten. Probably the wiki thing is a good idea. I think this could really get somewhere if slightly organized. I did not check, but maybe this whole thing already exist already on the net (I usually find that if you think about something, someone already did it). What do you think ? Cheers !

自由软件基金会(成立于1985年)

即使你不是他们哲学的全心全意的支持者,他们一直在推动的理念,自由软件,开源已经对软件行业和一般内容产生了惊人的影响(例如维基百科)。

我认为笔记本电脑是在1980年左右发明的,我还认为笔记本电脑和便携式计算机的发展改变了很多人的生活——尤其是那些在IT行业工作的人,或者那些使用电脑和旅行的人。

(普遍)加密。没有加密,任何金融交易都不会发生。这仍然是一个需要更多创新和用户友好性的领域。