更新:到目前为止表现最好的算法是这个。


这个问题探讨了在实时时间序列数据中检测突然峰值的稳健算法。

考虑以下示例数据:

这个数据的例子是Matlab格式的(但这个问题不是关于语言,而是关于算法):

p = [1 1 1.1 1 0.9 1 1 1.1 1 0.9 1 1.1 1 1 0.9 1 1 1.1 1 1 1 1 1.1 0.9 1 1.1 1 1 0.9, ...
     1 1.1 1 1 1.1 1 0.8 0.9 1 1.2 0.9 1 1 1.1 1.2 1 1.5 1 3 2 5 3 2 1 1 1 0.9 1 1, ... 
     3 2.6 4 3 3.2 2 1 1 0.8 4 4 2 2.5 1 1 1];

你可以清楚地看到有三个大峰和一些小峰。这个数据集是问题所涉及的时间序列数据集类的一个特定示例。这类数据集有两个一般特征:

有一种具有一般平均值的基本噪声 有很大的“峰值”或“更高的数据点”明显偏离噪声。

让我们假设以下情况:

峰的宽度不能事先确定 峰的高度明显偏离其他值 算法实时更新(因此每个新数据点都会更新)

对于这种情况,需要构造一个触发信号的边值。但是,边界值不能是静态的,必须通过算法实时确定。


我的问题是:什么是实时计算这些阈值的好算法?有没有针对这种情况的特定算法?最著名的算法是什么?


健壮的算法或有用的见解都受到高度赞赏。(可以用任何语言回答:这是关于算法的)


当前回答

在Palshikar(2009)中发现了另一个算法:

Palshikar, G.(2009)。时间序列中峰值检测的简单算法。在Proc. 1st Int。高级数据分析,商业分析和智能(卷122)。

论文可以从这里下载。

算法是这样的:

algorithm peak1 // one peak detection algorithms that uses peak function S1 

input T = x1, x2, …, xN, N // input time-series of N points 
input k // window size around the peak 
input h // typically 1 <= h <= 3 
output O // set of peaks detected in T 

begin 
O = empty set // initially empty 

    for (i = 1; i < n; i++) do
        // compute peak function value for each of the N points in T 
        a[i] = S1(k,i,xi,T); 
    end for 

    Compute the mean m' and standard deviation s' of all positive values in array a; 

    for (i = 1; i < n; i++) do // remove local peaks which are “small” in global context 
        if (a[i] > 0 && (a[i] – m') >( h * s')) then O = O + {xi}; 
        end if 
    end for 

    Order peaks in O in terms of increasing index in T 

    // retain only one peak out of any set of peaks within distance k of each other 

    for every adjacent pair of peaks xi and xj in O do 
        if |j – i| <= k then remove the smaller value of {xi, xj} from O 
        end if 
    end for 
end

优势

本文提出了5种不同的峰值检测算法 算法在原始时间序列数据上工作(不需要平滑)

缺点

很难事先确定k和h 峰不能是平的(就像我测试数据中的第三个峰)

例子:

其他回答

我想把我的Julia算法实现提供给其他人。要点可以在这里找到

using Statistics
using Plots
function SmoothedZscoreAlgo(y, lag, threshold, influence)
    # Julia implimentation of http://stackoverflow.com/a/22640362/6029703
    n = length(y)
    signals = zeros(n) # init signal results
    filteredY = copy(y) # init filtered series
    avgFilter = zeros(n) # init average filter
    stdFilter = zeros(n) # init std filter
    avgFilter[lag - 1] = mean(y[1:lag]) # init first value
    stdFilter[lag - 1] = std(y[1:lag]) # init first value

    for i in range(lag, stop=n-1)
        if abs(y[i] - avgFilter[i-1]) > threshold*stdFilter[i-1]
            if y[i] > avgFilter[i-1]
                signals[i] += 1 # postive signal
            else
                signals[i] += -1 # negative signal
            end
            # Make influence lower
            filteredY[i] = influence*y[i] + (1-influence)*filteredY[i-1]
        else
            signals[i] = 0
            filteredY[i] = y[i]
        end
        avgFilter[i] = mean(filteredY[i-lag+1:i])
        stdFilter[i] = std(filteredY[i-lag+1:i])
    end
    return (signals = signals, avgFilter = avgFilter, stdFilter = stdFilter)
end


# Data
y = [1,1,1.1,1,0.9,1,1,1.1,1,0.9,1,1.1,1,1,0.9,1,1,1.1,1,1,1,1,1.1,0.9,1,1.1,1,1,0.9,
       1,1.1,1,1,1.1,1,0.8,0.9,1,1.2,0.9,1,1,1.1,1.2,1,1.5,1,3,2,5,3,2,1,1,1,0.9,1,1,3,
       2.6,4,3,3.2,2,1,1,0.8,4,4,2,2.5,1,1,1]

# Settings: lag = 30, threshold = 5, influence = 0
lag = 30
threshold = 5
influence = 0

results = SmoothedZscoreAlgo(y, lag, threshold, influence)
upper_bound = results[:avgFilter] + threshold * results[:stdFilter]
lower_bound = results[:avgFilter] - threshold * results[:stdFilter]
x = 1:length(y)

yplot = plot(x,y,color="blue", label="Y",legend=:topleft)
yplot = plot!(x,upper_bound, color="green", label="Upper Bound",legend=:topleft)
yplot = plot!(x,results[:avgFilter], color="cyan", label="Average Filter",legend=:topleft)
yplot = plot!(x,lower_bound, color="green", label="Lower Bound",legend=:topleft)
signalplot = plot(x,results[:signals],color="red",label="Signals",legend=:topleft)
plot(yplot,signalplot,layout=(2,1),legend=:topleft)

根据@Jean-Paul提出的解决方案,我用c#实现了他的算法

public class ZScoreOutput
{
    public List<double> input;
    public List<int> signals;
    public List<double> avgFilter;
    public List<double> filtered_stddev;
}

public static class ZScore
{
    public static ZScoreOutput StartAlgo(List<double> input, int lag, double threshold, double influence)
    {
        // init variables!
        int[] signals = new int[input.Count];
        double[] filteredY = new List<double>(input).ToArray();
        double[] avgFilter = new double[input.Count];
        double[] stdFilter = new double[input.Count];

        var initialWindow = new List<double>(filteredY).Skip(0).Take(lag).ToList();

        avgFilter[lag - 1] = Mean(initialWindow);
        stdFilter[lag - 1] = StdDev(initialWindow);

        for (int i = lag; i < input.Count; i++)
        {
            if (Math.Abs(input[i] - avgFilter[i - 1]) > threshold * stdFilter[i - 1])
            {
                signals[i] = (input[i] > avgFilter[i - 1]) ? 1 : -1;
                filteredY[i] = influence * input[i] + (1 - influence) * filteredY[i - 1];
            }
            else
            {
                signals[i] = 0;
                filteredY[i] = input[i];
            }

            // Update rolling average and deviation
            var slidingWindow = new List<double>(filteredY).Skip(i - lag).Take(lag+1).ToList();

            var tmpMean = Mean(slidingWindow);
            var tmpStdDev = StdDev(slidingWindow);

            avgFilter[i] = Mean(slidingWindow);
            stdFilter[i] = StdDev(slidingWindow);
        }

        // Copy to convenience class 
        var result = new ZScoreOutput();
        result.input = input;
        result.avgFilter       = new List<double>(avgFilter);
        result.signals         = new List<int>(signals);
        result.filtered_stddev = new List<double>(stdFilter);

        return result;
    }

    private static double Mean(List<double> list)
    {
        // Simple helper function! 
        return list.Average();
    }

    private static double StdDev(List<double> values)
    {
        double ret = 0;
        if (values.Count() > 0)
        {
            double avg = values.Average();
            double sum = values.Sum(d => Math.Pow(d - avg, 2));
            ret = Math.Sqrt((sum) / (values.Count() - 1));
        }
        return ret;
    }
}

使用示例:

var input = new List<double> {1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 0.9, 1.0,
    1.1, 1.0, 1.0, 0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 0.9, 1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 1.0, 0.9,
    1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2, 0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.0, 1.5, 1.0,
    3.0, 2.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.6, 4.0, 3.0, 3.2, 2.0, 1.0,
    1.0, 0.8, 4.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.5, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0};

int lag = 30;
double threshold = 5.0;
double influence = 0.0;

var output = ZScore.StartAlgo(input, lag, threshold, influence);

在Palshikar(2009)中发现了另一个算法:

Palshikar, G.(2009)。时间序列中峰值检测的简单算法。在Proc. 1st Int。高级数据分析,商业分析和智能(卷122)。

论文可以从这里下载。

算法是这样的:

algorithm peak1 // one peak detection algorithms that uses peak function S1 

input T = x1, x2, …, xN, N // input time-series of N points 
input k // window size around the peak 
input h // typically 1 <= h <= 3 
output O // set of peaks detected in T 

begin 
O = empty set // initially empty 

    for (i = 1; i < n; i++) do
        // compute peak function value for each of the N points in T 
        a[i] = S1(k,i,xi,T); 
    end for 

    Compute the mean m' and standard deviation s' of all positive values in array a; 

    for (i = 1; i < n; i++) do // remove local peaks which are “small” in global context 
        if (a[i] > 0 && (a[i] – m') >( h * s')) then O = O + {xi}; 
        end if 
    end for 

    Order peaks in O in terms of increasing index in T 

    // retain only one peak out of any set of peaks within distance k of each other 

    for every adjacent pair of peaks xi and xj in O do 
        if |j – i| <= k then remove the smaller value of {xi, xj} from O 
        end if 
    end for 
end

优势

本文提出了5种不同的峰值检测算法 算法在原始时间序列数据上工作(不需要平滑)

缺点

很难事先确定k和h 峰不能是平的(就像我测试数据中的第三个峰)

例子:

下面是一个基于Groovy回答的实际Java实现。(我知道已经发布了Groovy和Kotlin实现,但对于像我这样只做Java的人来说,弄清楚如何在其他语言和Java之间转换真的很麻烦)。

(结果与他人图表相匹配)

算法实现

import java.util.ArrayList;
import java.util.Collections;
import java.util.HashMap;
import java.util.List;

import org.apache.commons.math3.stat.descriptive.SummaryStatistics;

public class SignalDetector {

    public HashMap<String, List> analyzeDataForSignals(List<Double> data, int lag, Double threshold, Double influence) {

        // init stats instance
        SummaryStatistics stats = new SummaryStatistics();

        // the results (peaks, 1 or -1) of our algorithm
        List<Integer> signals = new ArrayList<Integer>(Collections.nCopies(data.size(), 0));

        // filter out the signals (peaks) from our original list (using influence arg)
        List<Double> filteredData = new ArrayList<Double>(data);

        // the current average of the rolling window
        List<Double> avgFilter = new ArrayList<Double>(Collections.nCopies(data.size(), 0.0d));

        // the current standard deviation of the rolling window
        List<Double> stdFilter = new ArrayList<Double>(Collections.nCopies(data.size(), 0.0d));

        // init avgFilter and stdFilter
        for (int i = 0; i < lag; i++) {
            stats.addValue(data.get(i));
        }
        avgFilter.set(lag - 1, stats.getMean());
        stdFilter.set(lag - 1, Math.sqrt(stats.getPopulationVariance())); // getStandardDeviation() uses sample variance
        stats.clear();

        // loop input starting at end of rolling window
        for (int i = lag; i < data.size(); i++) {

            // if the distance between the current value and average is enough standard deviations (threshold) away
            if (Math.abs((data.get(i) - avgFilter.get(i - 1))) > threshold * stdFilter.get(i - 1)) {

                // this is a signal (i.e. peak), determine if it is a positive or negative signal
                if (data.get(i) > avgFilter.get(i - 1)) {
                    signals.set(i, 1);
                } else {
                    signals.set(i, -1);
                }

                // filter this signal out using influence
                filteredData.set(i, (influence * data.get(i)) + ((1 - influence) * filteredData.get(i - 1)));
            } else {
                // ensure this signal remains a zero
                signals.set(i, 0);
                // ensure this value is not filtered
                filteredData.set(i, data.get(i));
            }

            // update rolling average and deviation
            for (int j = i - lag; j < i; j++) {
                stats.addValue(filteredData.get(j));
            }
            avgFilter.set(i, stats.getMean());
            stdFilter.set(i, Math.sqrt(stats.getPopulationVariance()));
            stats.clear();
        }

        HashMap<String, List> returnMap = new HashMap<String, List>();
        returnMap.put("signals", signals);
        returnMap.put("filteredData", filteredData);
        returnMap.put("avgFilter", avgFilter);
        returnMap.put("stdFilter", stdFilter);

        return returnMap;

    } // end
}

主要方法

import java.text.DecimalFormat;
import java.util.ArrayList;
import java.util.Arrays;
import java.util.HashMap;
import java.util.List;

public class Main {

    public static void main(String[] args) throws Exception {
        DecimalFormat df = new DecimalFormat("#0.000");

        ArrayList<Double> data = new ArrayList<Double>(Arrays.asList(1d, 1d, 1.1d, 1d, 0.9d, 1d, 1d, 1.1d, 1d, 0.9d, 1d,
                1.1d, 1d, 1d, 0.9d, 1d, 1d, 1.1d, 1d, 1d, 1d, 1d, 1.1d, 0.9d, 1d, 1.1d, 1d, 1d, 0.9d, 1d, 1.1d, 1d, 1d,
                1.1d, 1d, 0.8d, 0.9d, 1d, 1.2d, 0.9d, 1d, 1d, 1.1d, 1.2d, 1d, 1.5d, 1d, 3d, 2d, 5d, 3d, 2d, 1d, 1d, 1d,
                0.9d, 1d, 1d, 3d, 2.6d, 4d, 3d, 3.2d, 2d, 1d, 1d, 0.8d, 4d, 4d, 2d, 2.5d, 1d, 1d, 1d));

        SignalDetector signalDetector = new SignalDetector();
        int lag = 30;
        double threshold = 5;
        double influence = 0;

        HashMap<String, List> resultsMap = signalDetector.analyzeDataForSignals(data, lag, threshold, influence);
        // print algorithm params
        System.out.println("lag: " + lag + "\t\tthreshold: " + threshold + "\t\tinfluence: " + influence);

        System.out.println("Data size: " + data.size());
        System.out.println("Signals size: " + resultsMap.get("signals").size());

        // print data
        System.out.print("Data:\t\t");
        for (double d : data) {
            System.out.print(df.format(d) + "\t");
        }
        System.out.println();

        // print signals
        System.out.print("Signals:\t");
        List<Integer> signalsList = resultsMap.get("signals");
        for (int i : signalsList) {
            System.out.print(df.format(i) + "\t");
        }
        System.out.println();

        // print filtered data
        System.out.print("Filtered Data:\t");
        List<Double> filteredDataList = resultsMap.get("filteredData");
        for (double d : filteredDataList) {
            System.out.print(df.format(d) + "\t");
        }
        System.out.println();

        // print running average
        System.out.print("Avg Filter:\t");
        List<Double> avgFilterList = resultsMap.get("avgFilter");
        for (double d : avgFilterList) {
            System.out.print(df.format(d) + "\t");
        }
        System.out.println();

        // print running std
        System.out.print("Std filter:\t");
        List<Double> stdFilterList = resultsMap.get("stdFilter");
        for (double d : stdFilterList) {
            System.out.print(df.format(d) + "\t");
        }
        System.out.println();

        System.out.println();
        for (int i = 0; i < signalsList.size(); i++) {
            if (signalsList.get(i) != 0) {
                System.out.println("Point " + i + " gave signal " + signalsList.get(i));
            }
        }
    }
}

结果

lag: 30     threshold: 5.0      influence: 0.0
Data size: 74
Signals size: 74
Data:           1.000   1.000   1.100   1.000   0.900   1.000   1.000   1.100   1.000   0.900   1.000   1.100   1.000   1.000   0.900   1.000   1.000   1.100   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.100   0.900   1.000   1.100   1.000   1.000   0.900   1.000   1.100   1.000   1.000   1.100   1.000   0.800   0.900   1.000   1.200   0.900   1.000   1.000   1.100   1.200   1.000   1.500   1.000   3.000   2.000   5.000   3.000   2.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   0.900   1.000   1.000   3.000   2.600   4.000   3.000   3.200   2.000   1.000   1.000   0.800   4.000   4.000   2.000   2.500   1.000   1.000   1.000   
Signals:        0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   1.000   0.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   
Filtered Data:  1.000   1.000   1.100   1.000   0.900   1.000   1.000   1.100   1.000   0.900   1.000   1.100   1.000   1.000   0.900   1.000   1.000   1.100   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.100   0.900   1.000   1.100   1.000   1.000   0.900   1.000   1.100   1.000   1.000   1.100   1.000   0.800   0.900   1.000   1.200   0.900   1.000   1.000   1.100   1.200   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   0.900   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   1.000   0.800   0.800   0.800   0.800   0.800   1.000   1.000   1.000   
Avg Filter:     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   1.003   1.003   1.007   1.007   1.003   1.007   1.010   1.003   1.000   0.997   1.003   1.003   1.003   1.000   1.003   1.010   1.013   1.013   1.013   1.010   1.010   1.010   1.010   1.010   1.007   1.010   1.010   1.003   1.003   1.003   1.007   1.007   1.003   1.003   1.003   1.000   1.000   1.007   1.003   0.997   0.983   0.980   0.973   0.973   0.970   
Std filter:     0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.000   0.060   0.060   0.063   0.063   0.060   0.063   0.060   0.071   0.073   0.071   0.080   0.080   0.080   0.077   0.080   0.087   0.085   0.085   0.085   0.083   0.083   0.083   0.083   0.083   0.081   0.079   0.079   0.080   0.080   0.080   0.077   0.077   0.075   0.075   0.075   0.073   0.073   0.063   0.071   0.080   0.078   0.083   0.089   0.089   0.086   

Point 45 gave signal 1
Point 47 gave signal 1
Point 48 gave signal 1
Point 49 gave signal 1
Point 50 gave signal 1
Point 51 gave signal 1
Point 58 gave signal 1
Point 59 gave signal 1
Point 60 gave signal 1
Point 61 gave signal 1
Point 62 gave signal 1
Point 63 gave signal 1
Point 67 gave signal 1
Point 68 gave signal 1
Point 69 gave signal 1
Point 70 gave signal 1

我为Jean-Paul最受欢迎的答案写了一个Go包。它假设y值的类型为float64。

github.com/MicahParks/peakdetect

下面的示例使用了这个包,并基于上面提到的流行答案中的R示例。它在编译时没有任何依赖关系,试图保持较低的内存占用,并且在有新数据点进入时不重新处理过去的点。该项目有100%的测试覆盖率,主要来自上述R示例的输入和输出。但是,如果有人发现任何错误,请打开一个GitHub问题。

编辑:我对v0.0.5进行了性能改进,似乎快了10倍!它使用Welford的方法进行初始化,并使用类似的方法计算滞后期(滑动窗口)的平均值和总体标准偏差。特别感谢另一个帖子的回答:https://stackoverflow.com/a/14638138/14797322

下面是基于R例子的Golang例子:

package main

import (
    "fmt"
    "log"

    "github.com/MicahParks/peakdetect"
)

// This example is the equivalent of the R example from the algorithm's author.
// https://stackoverflow.com/a/54507329/14797322
func main() {
    data := []float64{1, 1, 1.1, 1, 0.9, 1, 1, 1.1, 1, 0.9, 1, 1.1, 1, 1, 0.9, 1, 1, 1.1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.1, 0.9, 1, 1.1, 1, 1, 0.9, 1, 1.1, 1, 1, 1.1, 1, 0.8, 0.9, 1, 1.2, 0.9, 1, 1, 1.1, 1.2, 1, 1.5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0.9, 1, 1, 3, 2.6, 4, 3, 3.2, 2, 1, 1, 0.8, 4, 4, 2, 2.5, 1, 1, 1}

    // Algorithm configuration from example.
    const (
        lag       = 30
        threshold = 5
        influence = 0
    )

    // Create then initialize the peak detector.
    detector := peakdetect.NewPeakDetector()
    err := detector.Initialize(influence, threshold, data[:lag]) // The length of the initial values is the lag.
    if err != nil {
        log.Fatalf("Failed to initialize peak detector.\nError: %s", err)
    }

    // Start processing new data points and determine what signal, if any they produce.
    //
    // This method, .Next(), is best for when data is being processed in a stream, but this simply iterates over a slice.
    nextDataPoints := data[lag:]
    for i, newPoint := range nextDataPoints {
        signal := detector.Next(newPoint)
        var signalType string
        switch signal {
        case peakdetect.SignalNegative:
            signalType = "negative"
        case peakdetect.SignalNeutral:
            signalType = "neutral"
        case peakdetect.SignalPositive:
            signalType = "positive"
        }

        println(fmt.Sprintf("Data point at index %d has the signal: %s", i+lag, signalType))
    }

    // This method, .NextBatch(), is a helper function for processing many data points at once. It's returned slice
    // should produce the same signal outputs as the loop above.
    signals := detector.NextBatch(nextDataPoints)
    println(fmt.Sprintf("1:1 ratio of batch inputs to signal outputs: %t", len(signals) == len(nextDataPoints)))
}